WON Tip WON Trefelin 4-0 Aberystwyth

Trefelin

Home

W W W W W

5W 0D 0L → Steady

4-0

Aberystwyth

Away

L L W W W

3W 0D 2L ▲ Improving

Trefelin 50%

Draw 30%

Aberystwyth 20%

H Fair Odds 2

D Fair Odds 3.33

A Fair Odds 5

Implied Prob 75.2% Bookie's implied odds

Our Edge -7.2% Overpriced

Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %

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Supporting Bets

Extras

Primary Selection

1 — Trefelin to win

1.33

BTTS — No70% Trefelin Clean Sheet80%

📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder

Trefelin vs Aberystwyth Competition: Wales Cymru South Date: Saturday, 7th March 2026 Pick: 1 (Trefelin to win) Odds: 1.33 Confidence: 68% Also: BTTS — No (70%) Also: Trefelin Clean Sheet (80%)

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Head to Head

Record

Trefelin

Draws

Aberystwyth

Meetings

Avg Goals

BTTS

Over 2.5

Supports Tip Trefelin won 1 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).

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Stats Duel

Comparison

Trefelin

Metric

Aberystwyth

2.2

Goals For / Game

0.2

Goals Against / Game

1.4

80%

Clean Sheets

40%

5-0-0

W — D — L

3-0-2

Win Rate

100%

60%

2.4

Avg Goals

70%

Over 1.5

50%

Over 2.5

30%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 9.1%

0-1 5.4%

0-2 1.6%

0-3 0.3%

0-4 0.1%

0-5 0.0%

1-0 16.3%

1-1 9.8%

1-2 2.9%

1-3 0.6%

1-4 0.1%

1-5 0.0%

2-0 14.7%

2-1 8.8%

2-2 2.7%

2-3 0.5%

2-4 0.1%

2-5 0.0%

3-0 8.8%

3-1 5.3%

3-2 1.6%

3-3 0.3%

3-4 0.1%

3-5 0.0%

4-0 4.0%

4-1 2.4%

4-2 0.7%

4-3 0.1%

4-4 0.0%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 1.4%

5-1 0.9%

5-2 0.3%

5-3 0.1%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 1-0(16.3%) 2-0(14.7%) 2-1(8.8%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip T=Home goals ↓ A=Away →

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Market Odds Intelligence

Value Finder

Trefelin Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

Aberystwyth Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.

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Team Ratings

Grades

Trefelin

Overall

10.0 —

Scoring

7.3 —

Defence

9.3 —

Aberystwyth

Overall

6.0 —

Scoring

3.3 —

Defence

5.3 —

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 19%

Home Win & BTTS No 44%

Draw & BTTS Yes 0%

Draw & BTTS No 0%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 11%

Away Win & BTTS No 26%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 32%

Home Win & Under 2.5 32%

Draw & Over 2.5 0%

Draw & Under 2.5 0%

Away Win & Over 2.5 19%

Away Win & Under 2.5 19%

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Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

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Match Archives

History

Head to Head

⚽ FAW (Nov 8, 2025): Aberystwyth0

Trefelin2

Recent Form

Trefelin

⚽ FAW (Mar 4, 2026): Trefelin3

Cardiff Draconians1

⚽ FAW (Feb 28, 2026): Llantwit Major0

Trefelin1

⚽ FAW (Feb 20, 2026): Trefelin2

Ynyshir Albions0

⚽ FAW (Feb 17, 2026): Trefelin3

Baglan Dragons0

⚽ FAW (Feb 13, 2026): Carmarthen Town0

Trefelin2

Aberystwyth

⚽ FAW (Mar 1, 2026): Aberystwyth0

Caerau Ely4

⚽ FAW (Feb 24, 2026): Ammanford2

Aberystwyth1

⚽ FAW (Feb 14, 2026): Aberystwyth2

Treowen1

⚽ FAW (Feb 7, 2026): Baglan Dragons0

Aberystwyth1

⚽ FAW (Jan 31, 2026): Newport City0

Aberystwyth1

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Match Analysis

Writeup

On Saturday, 7th March 2026, Trefelin host Aberystwyth in Wales Cymru South. We recommend Trefelin to win as the standout selection.

Trefelin arrive in strong form, having recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Aberystwyth are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 3W 0D 2L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Trefelin, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Aberystwyth's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.

Our verdict: trefelin to win at odds of 1.33 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Trefelin vs Aberystwyth?

Our selection is 1 — Trefelin to win, priced at approximately 1.33. Tip confidence rating: 68%.

What is Trefelin's current form?

Trefelin have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches.

How has Aberystwyth been performing recently?

Aberystwyth have recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Trefelin lead with 1 wins versus Aberystwyth's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.

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