WON Tip WON AEK Athens 1-0 AEL Larissa

AEK Athens

Home

D W D W D

2W 3D 0L → Steady

1-0

AEL Larissa

Away

L D D L W

1W 2D 2L ▲ Improving

Implied Prob 82% Bookie's implied odds

Our Edge -28% Overpriced

Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %

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Supporting Bets

Extras

Primary Selection

1 — AEK Athens to win

1.22

Over 1.5 Goals90% AEK Athens Clean Sheet60%

📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder

AEK Athens vs AEL Larissa Competition: Greece Super League Date: Saturday, 7th March 2026 Pick: 1 (AEK Athens to win) Odds: 1.22 Confidence: 54% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%) Also: AEK Athens Clean Sheet (60%)

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Head to Head

Record

AEK Athens

Draws

AEL Larissa

Meetings

3.2

Avg Goals

60%

BTTS

60%

Over 2.5

Supports Tip AEK Athens won 3 of the last 5 meetings (2 draws).

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Stats Duel

Comparison

AEK Athens

Metric

AEL Larissa

2.2

Goals For / Game

0.6

Goals Against / Game

1.8

60%

Clean Sheets

20%

2-3-0

W — D — L

1-2-2

Win Rate

40%

20%

2.8

Avg Goals

90%

Over 1.5

50%

Over 2.5

50%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 6.1%

0-1 4.9%

0-2 2.0%

0-3 0.5%

0-4 0.1%

0-5 0.0%

1-0 12.2%

1-1 9.7%

1-2 3.9%

1-3 1.0%

1-4 0.2%

1-5 0.0%

2-0 12.2%

2-1 9.7%

2-2 3.9%

2-3 1.0%

2-4 0.2%

2-5 0.0%

3-0 8.1%

3-1 6.5%

3-2 2.6%

3-3 0.7%

3-4 0.1%

3-5 0.0%

4-0 4.1%

4-1 3.2%

4-2 1.3%

4-3 0.4%

4-4 0.1%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 1.6%

5-1 1.3%

5-2 0.5%

5-3 0.1%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 1-0(12.2%) 2-0(12.2%) 2-1(9.7%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip A=Home goals ↓ A=Away →

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Team Ratings

Grades

AEK Athens

Overall

5.8 —

Scoring

7.3 —

Defence

8.0 —

AEL Larissa

Overall

3.2 —

Scoring

3.3 —

Defence

4.0 —

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 18%

Home Win & BTTS No 18%

Draw & BTTS Yes 23%

Draw & BTTS No 23%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 10%

Away Win & BTTS No 10%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 18%

Home Win & Under 2.5 18%

Draw & Over 2.5 23%

Draw & Under 2.5 23%

Away Win & Over 2.5 10%

Away Win & Under 2.5 10%

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Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

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Match Archives

History

Head to Head

⚽ SL (Sep 21, 2025): AEL Larissa1

AEK Athens1

⚽ SL (Feb 15, 2021): AEL Larissa2

AEK Athens4

⚽ SL (Nov 22, 2020): AEK Athens4

AEL Larissa1

⚽ SL (Jan 19, 2020): AEK Athens3

AEL Larissa0

⚽ SL (Oct 5, 2019): AEL Larissa0

AEK Athens0

Recent Form

AEK Athens

⚽ SL (Mar 1, 2026): Volos2

AEK Athens2

⚽ SL (Feb 22, 2026): AEK Athens4

Levadiakos0

⚽ SL (Feb 15, 2026): PAOK0

AEK Athens0

⚽ SL (Feb 8, 2026): Panserraikos0

AEK Athens4

⚽ SL (Feb 1, 2026): AEK Athens1

Olympiacos Piraeus1

AEL Larissa

⚽ SL (Feb 28, 2026): OFI Crete3

AEL Larissa0

⚽ SL (Feb 22, 2026): AEL Larissa1

PAOK1

⚽ SL (Feb 15, 2026): Panathinaikos1

AEL Larissa1

⚽ SL (Feb 7, 2026): AEL Larissa1

Panetolikos4

⚽ SL (Jan 31, 2026): Volos0

AEL Larissa2

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Match Analysis

Writeup

On Saturday, 7th March 2026, AEK Athens host AEL Larissa in Greece Super League. We recommend AEK Athens to win as the standout selection.

AEK Athens arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 outings.

AEL Larissa are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 2D 2L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour AEK Athens, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to AEL Larissa's 0, with 2 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: aek athens to win at odds of 1.22 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for AEK Athens vs AEL Larissa?

Our selection is 1 — AEK Athens to win, priced at approximately 1.22. Tip confidence rating: 54%.

What is AEK Athens's current form?

AEK Athens have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches.

How has AEL Larissa been performing recently?

AEL Larissa have recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

AEK Athens lead with 3 wins versus AEL Larissa's 0, with 2 draws across 5 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.

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