WON Tip WON Aston Villa 4-0 Bologna
A

Aston Villa

Home
D W L W W
4W 2D 4L ▼ Declining
VS
4-0
B
Bologna
Away
W L W L W
6W 1D 3L → Steady
24predictiontoday Selection · Thursday, 16th April 2026
1X
Backing Aston Villa to win or draw
Implied Prob 84.7% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge +15.3% Value detected
Kelly % 100% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1X — Aston Villa to win or draw
1.18
Over 1.5 Goals80%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Aston Villa vs Bologna Competition: UEFA Europa League Date: Thursday, 16th April 2026 Pick: 1X (Aston Villa to win or draw) Odds: 1.18 Confidence: 100% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%)
Head to Head
Record
3
Aston Villa
0
Draws
0
Bologna
3
Meetings
2.3
Avg Goals
33%
BTTS
33%
Over 2.5
Neutral Insufficient H2H data.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Aston Villa
Metric
Bologna
1.3
Goals For / Game
1.4
1.4
Goals Against / Game
1.2
30%
Clean Sheets
40%
4-2-4
W — D — L
6-1-3
Win Rate
40%
60%
2.7
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
B0
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
A0
0-0 7.1%
0-1 9.9%
0-2 6.9%
0-3 3.2%
0-4 1.1%
0-5 0.3%
A1
1-0 8.8%
1-1 12.4%
1-2 8.7%
1-3 4.0%
1-4 1.4%
1-5 0.4%
A2
2-0 5.5%
2-1 7.7%
2-2 5.4%
2-3 2.5%
2-4 0.9%
2-5 0.3%
A3
3-0 2.3%
3-1 3.2%
3-2 2.3%
3-3 1.1%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
A4
4-0 0.7%
4-1 1.0%
4-2 0.7%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
A5
5-0 0.2%
5-1 0.3%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-1(12.4%) 1-0(8.8%) 2-1(7.7%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip A=Home goals ↓   B=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Aston Villa
Overall
4.6
Scoring
4.3
Defence
5.3
Bologna
Overall
6.3
Scoring
4.7
Defence
6.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 19%
Home Win & BTTS No 16%
Draw & BTTS Yes 7%
Draw & BTTS No 6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 29%
Away Win & BTTS No 23%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 14%
Home Win & Under 2.5 21%
Draw & Over 2.5 5%
Draw & Under 2.5 8%
Away Win & Over 2.5 21%
Away Win & Under 2.5 31%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
09.04.26UEFA Europa League
Bologna1
Aston Villa3
25.09.25UEFA Europa League
Aston Villa1
Bologna0
22.10.24UEFA Champions League
Aston Villa2
Bologna0
Recent Form
Aston Villa
12.04.26Premier League
Nottingham Forest1
Aston Villa1
D
09.04.26UEFA Europa League
Bologna1
Aston Villa3
W
27.03.26Club Friendly
Aston Villa1
Elche2
L
22.03.26Premier League
Aston Villa2
West Ham0
W
19.03.26UEFA Europa League
Aston Villa2
Lille0
W
15.03.26Premier League
Manchester United3
Aston Villa1
L
12.03.26UEFA Europa League
Lille0
Aston Villa1
W
04.03.26Premier League
Aston Villa1
Chelsea4
L
27.02.26Premier League
Wolves2
Aston Villa0
L
21.02.26Premier League
Aston Villa1
Leeds United1
D
Bologna
12.04.26Serie A
Bologna2
Lecce0
W
09.04.26UEFA Europa League
Bologna1
Aston Villa3
L
05.04.26Serie A
Cremonese1
Bologna2
W
22.03.26Serie A
Bologna0
Lazio2
L
19.03.26UEFA Europa League
AS Roma3
Bologna4
W
15.03.26Serie A
Sassuolo0
Bologna1
W
12.03.26UEFA Europa League
Bologna1
AS Roma1
D
08.03.26Serie A
Bologna1
Verona2
L
02.03.26Serie A
Pisa0
Bologna1
W
26.02.26UEFA Europa League
Bologna1
Brann0
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Beating the oddsmakers requires a careful, steady approach, and this upcoming UEFA Europa League fixture is a textbook case for why data analysis works. The key is to take the emotion out of the game and focus on the hard numbers that actually move the market. Let’s look at the hosts first.

Their general form establishes their market expectation. Yet, seasoned bettors know to look a lot closer. A deep dive into their recent performances uncovers the clear reality of their current attacking rhythm and their defensive discipline.

The traveling team possesses a unique profile that we need to unpack. Comparing their long-term form with the immediate spark shown in their latest games is essential to finding out if they hold hidden betting value today. History cannot be swept under the rug, either.

Evaluating the head-to-head data frequently highlights recurring dominance or tactical setups that regularly cause problems for one side. Mixing these past encounters with the latest form metrics yields a strong pick for the clash. With all variables considered, the optimal path is obvious.

Our highlighted choice is 1X, which is where the sharp money is heading, boosted by the current @1.18 odds available. Once the whistle blows, the talking is over. It will all come down to the final score to validate our statistical blueprint.

Make sure to review our other daily predictions.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Aston Villa vs Bologna?
Our selection is 1X — Aston Villa to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.18. Tip confidence rating: 100%.
What is Aston Villa's current form?
Aston Villa have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Bologna been performing recently?
Bologna have recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Aston Villa lead with 3 wins versus Bologna's 0, with 0 draws across 3 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 33%.
⚠️
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