LOST Tip LOST Atletico MG 0-0 Juventude
A

Atletico MG

Home
L L W W L
5W 0D 5L ▲ Improving
VS
0-0
J
Juventude
Away
W D L L L
2W 2D 6L ▲ Improving
24predictiontoday Selection · Thursday, 16th April 2026
1
Backing Atletico MG to win
Atletico MG 50%
Draw 30%
Juventude 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 79.4% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -29.4% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
Neutral No head-to-head data found.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Atletico MG
Metric
Juventude
1
Goals For / Game
1
0.8
Goals Against / Game
1.5
40%
Clean Sheets
10%
5-0-5
W — D — L
2-2-6
Win Rate
50%
20%
2.2
Avg Goals
55%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
J0
J1
J2
J3
J4
J5
A0
0-0 11.7%
0-1 10.5%
0-2 4.7%
0-3 1.4%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
A1
1-0 14.6%
1-1 13.1%
1-2 5.9%
1-3 1.8%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
A2
2-0 9.1%
2-1 8.2%
2-2 3.7%
2-3 1.1%
2-4 0.3%
2-5 0.0%
A3
3-0 3.8%
3-1 3.4%
3-2 1.5%
3-3 0.5%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
A4
4-0 1.2%
4-1 1.1%
4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
A5
5-0 0.3%
5-1 0.3%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(14.6%) 2-0(9.1%) 2-1(8.2%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip A=Home goals ↓   J=Away →
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Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Atletico MG Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Juventude Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Atletico MG
Overall
5.0
Scoring
3.3
Defence
7.3
Juventude
Overall
2.6
Scoring
3.3
Defence
5.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 28%
Home Win & BTTS No 35%
Draw & BTTS Yes 6%
Draw & BTTS No 7%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 11%
Away Win & BTTS No 13%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 25%
Home Win & Under 2.5 38%
Draw & Over 2.5 5%
Draw & Under 2.5 8%
Away Win & Over 2.5 10%
Away Win & Under 2.5 14%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head

No data found.

Recent Form
Atletico MG
12.04.26Serie A
Santos1
Atletico-MG0
L
09.04.26Copa Libertadores
Puerto Cabello2
Atletico-MG1
L
05.04.26Serie A
Atletico-MG2
Athletico-PR1
W
02.04.26Serie A
Chapecoense-SC0
Atletico-MG4
W
21.03.26Serie A
Fluminense1
Atletico-MG0
L
19.03.26Serie A
Atletico-MG1
Sao Paulo0
W
14.03.26Serie A
Vitoria2
Atletico-MG0
L
11.03.26Serie A
Atletico-MG1
Internacional0
W
08.03.26Mineiro
Cruzeiro1
Atletico-MG0
L
01.03.26Mineiro
America MG0
Atletico-MG1
W
Juventude
12.04.26Primera División
Juventud1
Progreso0
W
09.04.26Copa Sudamericana
Juventud1
Cienciano1
D
04.04.26Primera División
Racing Montevideo2
Juventud1
L
30.03.26Primera División
Juventud1
Boston River2
L
25.03.26Primera División
CA Cerro1
Juventud0
L
22.03.26Primera División
Juventud0
Albion1
L
16.03.26Primera División
Danubio4
Juventud1
L
13.03.26Copa Libertadores
Ind. Medellin2
Juventud1
L
08.03.26Primera División
Juventud3
Nacional1
W
06.03.26Copa Libertadores
Juventud1
Ind. Medellin1
D
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Beating the oddsmakers requires a careful, steady approach, and this upcoming Copa Sudamericana fixture is a textbook case for why data analysis works. The key is to take the emotion out of the game and focus on the hard numbers that actually move the market. Let’s look at the hosts first.

Their general form establishes their market expectation. Yet, seasoned bettors know to look a lot closer. A deep dive into their recent performances uncovers the clear reality of their current attacking rhythm and their defensive discipline.

The traveling team possesses a unique profile that we need to unpack. Comparing their long-term form with the immediate spark shown in their latest games is essential to finding out if they hold hidden betting value today. History cannot be swept under the rug, either.

Evaluating the head-to-head data frequently highlights recurring dominance or tactical setups that regularly cause problems for one side. Mixing these past encounters with the latest form metrics yields a strong pick for the clash. With all variables considered, the optimal path is obvious.

Our highlighted choice is 1, which is where the sharp money is heading, boosted by the current @1.26 odds available. Once the whistle blows, the talking is over. It will all come down to the final score to validate our statistical blueprint.

Make sure to review our other daily predictions.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Atletico MG vs Juventude?
Our selection is 1 — Atletico MG to win, priced at approximately 1.26. Tip confidence rating: 50%.
What is Atletico MG's current form?
Atletico MG have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Juventude been performing recently?
Juventude have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
No recent head-to-head data available.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.2 goals per game.
⚠️
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