WON Tip WON Celta Vigo 1-3 Freiburg
C

Celta Vigo

Home
L L W L W
4W 2D 4L ▲ Improving
VS
1-3
F
Freiburg
Away
W W L W W
5W 1D 4L → Steady
24predictiontoday Selection · Thursday, 16th April 2026
Over 1.5
Backing over 1.5 goals
Implied Prob 79.4% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge +13.6% Value detected
Kelly % 66.1% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals
1.26
Over 1.5 Goals80%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Celta Vigo vs Freiburg Competition: UEFA Europa League Date: Thursday, 16th April 2026 Pick: Over 1.5 (over 1.5 goals) Odds: 1.26 Confidence: 93% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%)
Head to Head
Record
0
Celta Vigo
0
Draws
1
Freiburg
1
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
0%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Over 1.5 in 100% of H2H.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Celta Vigo
Metric
Freiburg
1.4
Goals For / Game
1.8
1.7
Goals Against / Game
1.3
20%
Clean Sheets
20%
4-2-4
W — D — L
5-1-4
Win Rate
40%
50%
3.1
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
F0
F1
F2
F3
F4
F5
C0
0-0 4.5%
0-1 7.9%
0-2 6.9%
0-3 4.0%
0-4 1.8%
0-5 0.6%
C1
1-0 6.1%
1-1 10.6%
1-2 9.3%
1-3 5.4%
1-4 2.4%
1-5 0.8%
C2
2-0 4.1%
2-1 7.2%
2-2 6.3%
2-3 3.7%
2-4 1.6%
2-5 0.6%
C3
3-0 1.9%
3-1 3.2%
3-2 2.8%
3-3 1.7%
3-4 0.7%
3-5 0.3%
C4
4-0 0.6%
4-1 1.1%
4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
C5
5-0 0.2%
5-1 0.3%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-1(10.6%) 1-2(9.3%) 0-1(7.9%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip C=Home goals ↓   F=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Celta Vigo
Overall
4.6
Scoring
4.7
Defence
4.3
Freiburg
Overall
5.3
Scoring
6.0
Defence
5.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 21%
Home Win & BTTS No 17%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 26%
Away Win & BTTS No 22%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 23%
Home Win & Under 2.5 15%
Draw & Over 2.5 8%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 29%
Away Win & Under 2.5 19%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
09.04.26Europa League
Freiburg3
Celta Vigo0
Recent Form
Celta Vigo
12.04.26La Liga
Celta Vigo0
Real Oviedo3
L
09.04.26Europa League
Freiburg3
Celta Vigo0
L
05.04.26La Liga
Valencia2
Celta Vigo3
W
22.03.26La Liga
Celta Vigo3
Alaves4
L
19.03.26Europa League
Lyon0
Celta Vigo2
W
15.03.26La Liga
Betis1
Celta Vigo1
D
12.03.26Europa League
Celta Vigo1
Lyon1
D
06.03.26La Liga
Celta Vigo1
Real Madrid2
L
01.03.26La Liga
Girona1
Celta Vigo2
W
26.02.26Europa League
Celta Vigo1
PAOK0
W
Freiburg
12.04.26Bundesliga
Mainz0
Freiburg1
W
09.04.26Europa League
Freiburg3
Celta Vigo0
W
04.04.26Bundesliga
Freiburg2
Bayern Munich3
L
22.03.26Bundesliga
St. Pauli1
Freiburg2
W
19.03.26Europa League
Freiburg5
Genk1
W
15.03.26Bundesliga
Freiburg0
Union Berlin1
L
12.03.26Europa League
Genk1
Freiburg0
L
07.03.26Bundesliga
Freiburg3
Bayer Leverkusen3
D
01.03.26Bundesliga
Eintracht Frankfurt2
Freiburg0
L
22.02.26Bundesliga
Freiburg2
B. Monchengladbach1
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Beating the oddsmakers requires a careful, steady approach, and this upcoming UEFA Europa League fixture is a textbook case for why data analysis works. The key is to take the emotion out of the game and focus on the hard numbers that actually move the market. Let’s look at the hosts first.

Their general form establishes their market expectation. Yet, seasoned bettors know to look a lot closer. A deep dive into their recent performances uncovers the clear reality of their current attacking rhythm and their defensive discipline.

The traveling team possesses a unique profile that we need to unpack. Comparing their long-term form with the immediate spark shown in their latest games is essential to finding out if they hold hidden betting value today. History cannot be swept under the rug, either.

Evaluating the head-to-head data frequently highlights recurring dominance or tactical setups that regularly cause problems for one side. Mixing these past encounters with the latest form metrics yields a strong pick for the clash. With all variables considered, the optimal path is obvious.

Our highlighted choice is Over 1.5, which is where the sharp money is heading, boosted by the current @1.26 odds available. Once the whistle blows, the talking is over. It will all come down to the final score to validate our statistical blueprint.

Make sure to review our other daily predictions.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Celta Vigo vs Freiburg?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.26. Tip confidence rating: 93%.
What is Celta Vigo's current form?
Celta Vigo have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Freiburg been performing recently?
Freiburg have recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Celta Vigo lead with 0 wins versus Freiburg's 1, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
⚠️
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