WON Tip WON Palmeiras 2-1 Sporting Cristal
P

Palmeiras

Home
D D W W W
7W 2D 1L ▼ Declining
VS
2-1
S
Sporting Cristal
Away
W L L W L
4W 2D 4L ▼ Declining
24predictiontoday Selection · Thursday, 16th April 2026
1
Backing Palmeiras to win
Palmeiras 50%
Draw 30%
Sporting Cristal 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 85.5% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -22.5% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
3
Palmeiras
0
Draws
1
Sporting Cristal
4
Meetings
3.8
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Palmeiras won 3 of the last 4 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Palmeiras
Metric
Sporting Cristal
1.3
Goals For / Game
1.5
0.7
Goals Against / Game
1.2
40%
Clean Sheets
40%
7-2-1
W — D — L
4-2-4
Win Rate
70%
40%
2.4
Avg Goals
65%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
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Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
P0
0-0 9.5%
0-1 10.5%
0-2 5.8%
0-3 2.1%
0-4 0.6%
0-5 0.1%
P1
1-0 11.9%
1-1 13.1%
1-2 7.2%
1-3 2.6%
1-4 0.7%
1-5 0.2%
P2
2-0 7.5%
2-1 8.2%
2-2 4.5%
2-3 1.7%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
P3
3-0 3.1%
3-1 3.4%
3-2 1.9%
3-3 0.7%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.0%
P4
4-0 1.0%
4-1 1.1%
4-2 0.6%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
P5
5-0 0.2%
5-1 0.3%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(11.9%) 2-1(8.2%) 2-0(7.5%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip P=Home goals ↓   S=Away →
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Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Palmeiras Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Sporting Cristal Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
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Team Ratings
Grades
Palmeiras
Overall
7.6
Scoring
4.3
Defence
7.7
Sporting Cristal
Overall
4.6
Scoring
5.0
Defence
6.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 32%
Home Win & BTTS No 22%
Draw & BTTS Yes 9%
Draw & BTTS No 6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 19%
Away Win & BTTS No 12%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 32%
Home Win & Under 2.5 22%
Draw & Over 2.5 9%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 19%
Away Win & Under 2.5 12%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
29.05.25Copa Libertadores
Palmeiras6
Sporting Cristal0
03.04.25Copa Libertadores
Sporting Cristal2
Palmeiras3
18.04.13Copa Libertadores
Sporting Cristal1
Palmeiras0
15.02.13Copa Libertadores
Palmeiras2
Sporting Cristal1
Recent Form
Palmeiras
12.04.26Serie A
Corinthians0
Palmeiras0
D
09.04.26Copa Libertadores
Junior1
Palmeiras1
D
05.04.26Serie A
Bahia1
Palmeiras2
W
03.04.26Serie A
Palmeiras2
Gremio1
W
22.03.26Serie A
Sao Paulo0
Palmeiras1
W
18.03.26Serie A
Palmeiras2
Botafogo RJ1
W
15.03.26Serie A
Palmeiras1
Mirassol0
W
12.03.26Serie A
Vasco2
Palmeiras1
L
09.03.26Paulista
Novorizontino1
Palmeiras2
W
05.03.26Paulista
Palmeiras1
Novorizontino0
W
Sporting Cristal
09.04.26Copa Libertadores
Sporting Cristal1
Cerro Porteno0
W
03.04.26Liga 1
Sporting Cristal1
Moquegua2
L
21.03.26Liga 1
Los Chankas3
Sporting Cristal2
L
15.03.26Liga 1
Sporting Cristal3
Sport Boys0
W
11.03.26Copa Libertadores
Sporting Cristal1
Carabobo2
L
07.03.26Liga 1
Sporting Cristal3
Alianza Atl.1
W
04.03.26Copa Libertadores
Carabobo0
Sporting Cristal1
W
28.02.26Liga 1
Sport Huancayo2
Sporting Cristal1
L
25.02.26Copa Libertadores
Sporting Cristal0
2 de Mayo (5-4 pens)0
W
21.02.26Liga 1
Sporting Cristal2
U. de Deportes2
D
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Beating the oddsmakers requires a careful, steady approach, and this upcoming Copa Libertadores fixture is a textbook case for why data analysis works. The key is to take the emotion out of the game and focus on the hard numbers that actually move the market. Let’s look at the hosts first.

Their general form establishes their market expectation. Yet, seasoned bettors know to look a lot closer. A deep dive into their recent performances uncovers the clear reality of their current attacking rhythm and their defensive discipline.

The traveling team possesses a unique profile that we need to unpack. Comparing their long-term form with the immediate spark shown in their latest games is essential to finding out if they hold hidden betting value today. History cannot be swept under the rug, either.

Evaluating the head-to-head data frequently highlights recurring dominance or tactical setups that regularly cause problems for one side. Mixing these past encounters with the latest form metrics yields a strong pick for the clash. With all variables considered, the optimal path is obvious.

Our highlighted choice is 1, which is where the sharp money is heading, boosted by the current @1.17 odds available. Once the whistle blows, the talking is over. It will all come down to the final score to validate our statistical blueprint.

Make sure to review our other daily predictions.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Palmeiras vs Sporting Cristal?
Our selection is 1 — Palmeiras to win, priced at approximately 1.17. Tip confidence rating: 63%.
What is Palmeiras's current form?
Palmeiras have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Sporting Cristal been performing recently?
Sporting Cristal have recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Palmeiras lead with 3 wins versus Sporting Cristal's 1, with 0 draws across 4 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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