WON Tip WON AZ Alkmaar 2-2 Shakhtar Donetsk
A

AZ Alkmaar

Home
W L W L W
6W 0D 4L ▼ Declining
VS
2-2
S
Shakhtar Donetsk
Away
D W W L W
8W 1D 1L → Steady
24predictiontoday Selection · Thursday, 16th April 2026
Over 1.5
Backing over 1.5 goals
Implied Prob 84% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge +11% Value detected
Kelly % 68.7% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals
1.19
Over 2.5 Goals75% Over 1.5 Goals85% BTTS — No70% Shakhtar Donetsk Clean Sheet70%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
AZ Alkmaar vs Shakhtar Donetsk Competition: UEFA Conference League Date: Thursday, 16th April 2026 Pick: Over 1.5 (over 1.5 goals) Odds: 1.19 Confidence: 95% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (75%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%) Also: BTTS — No (70%) Also: Shakhtar Donetsk Clean Sheet (70%)
Head to Head
Record
2
AZ Alkmaar
1
Draws
1
Shakhtar Donetsk
4
Meetings
4
Avg Goals
75%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Over 1.5 in 100% of H2H.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
AZ Alkmaar
Metric
Shakhtar Donetsk
1.8
Goals For / Game
2.1
1.2
Goals Against / Game
0.5
40%
Clean Sheets
70%
6-0-4
W — D — L
8-1-1
Win Rate
60%
80%
2.8
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
30%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
A0
0-0 6.1%
0-1 10.0%
0-2 8.3%
0-3 4.6%
0-4 1.9%
0-5 0.6%
A1
1-0 7.0%
1-1 11.5%
1-2 9.5%
1-3 5.2%
1-4 2.2%
1-5 0.7%
A2
2-0 4.0%
2-1 6.6%
2-2 5.5%
2-3 3.0%
2-4 1.2%
2-5 0.4%
A3
3-0 1.5%
3-1 2.5%
3-2 2.1%
3-3 1.2%
3-4 0.5%
3-5 0.2%
A4
4-0 0.4%
4-1 0.7%
4-2 0.6%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.1%
A5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.2%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-1(11.5%) 0-1(10.0%) 1-2(9.5%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip A=Home goals ↓   S=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
AZ Alkmaar
Overall
6.0
Scoring
6.0
Defence
6.0
Shakhtar Donetsk
Overall
8.3
Scoring
7.0
Defence
8.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 12%
Home Win & BTTS No 29%
Draw & BTTS Yes 1%
Draw & BTTS No 2%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 17%
Away Win & BTTS No 39%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 31%
Home Win & Under 2.5 10%
Draw & Over 2.5 2%
Draw & Under 2.5 1%
Away Win & Over 2.5 42%
Away Win & Under 2.5 14%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
09.04.26Conf. League
Shakhtar Donetsk3
AZ Alkmaar0
08.07.23Club Friendly
AZ Alkmaar3
Shakhtar Donetsk3
16.03.05UEFA Cup
AZ Alkmaar2
Shakhtar Donetsk1
10.03.05UEFA Cup
Shakhtar Donetsk1
AZ Alkmaar3
Recent Form
AZ Alkmaar
12.04.26Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar3
Heerenveen0
W
09.04.26Conf. League
Shakhtar Donetsk3
AZ Alkmaar0
L
04.04.26Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar2
Sittard0
W
22.03.26Eredivisie
Groningen3
AZ Alkmaar0
L
19.03.26Conf. League
Sparta Prague0
AZ Alkmaar4
W
15.03.26Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar4
Heracles0
W
12.03.26Conf. League
AZ Alkmaar2
Sparta Prague1
W
07.03.26Eredivisie
PSV2
AZ Alkmaar1
L
04.03.26KNVB Cup
AZ Alkmaar2
Telstar1
W
01.03.26Eredivisie
Utrecht2
AZ Alkmaar0
L
Shakhtar Donetsk
13.04.26Premier League
LNZ Cherkasy2
Shakhtar Donetsk2
D
09.04.26Conf. League
Shakhtar Donetsk3
AZ Alkmaar0
W
05.04.26Premier League
Shakhtar Donetsk3
Rukh Lviv0
W
19.03.26Conf. League
Shakhtar Donetsk1
Lech Poznan2
L
15.03.26Premier League
Shakhtar Donetsk1
Metalist 19250
W
12.03.26Conf. League
Lech Poznan1
Shakhtar Donetsk3
W
06.03.26Premier League
Oleksandriya0
Shakhtar Donetsk1
W
27.02.26Premier League
Shakhtar Donetsk1
Veres-Rivne0
W
22.02.26Premier League
Shakhtar Donetsk3
Karpaty Lviv0
W
13.02.26Club Friendly
Rustavi0
Shakhtar Donetsk3
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Beating the oddsmakers requires a careful, steady approach, and this upcoming UEFA Conference League fixture is a textbook case for why data analysis works. The key is to take the emotion out of the game and focus on the hard numbers that actually move the market. Let’s look at the hosts first.

Their general form establishes their market expectation. Yet, seasoned bettors know to look a lot closer. A deep dive into their recent performances uncovers the clear reality of their current attacking rhythm and their defensive discipline.

The traveling team possesses a unique profile that we need to unpack. Comparing their long-term form with the immediate spark shown in their latest games is essential to finding out if they hold hidden betting value today. History cannot be swept under the rug, either.

Evaluating the head-to-head data frequently highlights recurring dominance or tactical setups that regularly cause problems for one side. Mixing these past encounters with the latest form metrics yields a strong pick for the clash. With all variables considered, the optimal path is obvious.

Our highlighted choice is Over 1.5, which is where the sharp money is heading, boosted by the current @1.19 odds available. Once the whistle blows, the talking is over. It will all come down to the final score to validate our statistical blueprint.

Make sure to review our other daily predictions.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for AZ Alkmaar vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.19. Tip confidence rating: 95%.
What is AZ Alkmaar's current form?
AZ Alkmaar have won 6, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Shakhtar Donetsk been performing recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
AZ Alkmaar lead with 2 wins versus Shakhtar Donetsk's 1, with 1 draws across 4 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 75%.
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