WON Tip WON Atletico MG 2-1 Ceara
A

Atletico MG

Home
L W L L W
5W 0D 5L → Steady
VS
2-1
C
Ceara
Away
D W W W W
4W 5D 1L ▼ Declining
24predictiontoday Selection · Thursday, 23rd April 2026
1X
Backing Atletico MG to win or draw
Implied Prob 88.5% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge +1.5% Value detected
Kelly % 13.1% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1X — Atletico MG to win or draw
1.13
Under 2.5 Goals70%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Atletico MG vs Ceara Competition: Copa Do Brasil Date: Thursday, 23rd April 2026 Pick: 1X (Atletico MG to win or draw) Odds: 1.13 Confidence: 90% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (70%)
Head to Head
Record
6
Atletico MG
3
Draws
1
Ceara
10
Meetings
2.1
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Neutral Insufficient H2H data.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Atletico MG
Metric
Ceara
1.1
Goals For / Game
1.3
1
Goals Against / Game
0.7
30%
Clean Sheets
50%
5-0-5
W — D — L
4-5-1
Win Rate
50%
40%
2.1
Avg Goals
65%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
C0
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
A0
0-0 12.9%
0-1 14.8%
0-2 8.5%
0-3 3.3%
0-4 0.9%
0-5 0.2%
A1
1-0 11.6%
1-1 13.3%
1-2 7.7%
1-3 2.9%
1-4 0.8%
1-5 0.2%
A2
2-0 5.2%
2-1 6.0%
2-2 3.5%
2-3 1.3%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
A3
3-0 1.6%
3-1 1.8%
3-2 1.0%
3-3 0.4%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
A4
4-0 0.4%
4-1 0.4%
4-2 0.2%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
A5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-1(13.3%) 0-0(12.9%) 1-0(11.6%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip A=Home goals ↓   C=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Atletico MG
Overall
5.0
Scoring
3.7
Defence
6.7
Ceara
Overall
5.5
Scoring
4.3
Defence
7.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 17%
Home Win & BTTS No 26%
Draw & BTTS Yes 9%
Draw & BTTS No 13%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Away Win & BTTS No 21%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 13%
Home Win & Under 2.5 30%
Draw & Over 2.5 7%
Draw & Under 2.5 15%
Away Win & Over 2.5 11%
Away Win & Under 2.5 25%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
25.10.25SA
Atletico-MG1
Ceara0
01.06.25SA
Ceara0
Atletico-MG1
09.10.22SA
Atletico-MG0
Ceara0
15.06.22SA
Ceara0
Atletico-MG0
09.10.21SA
Atletico-MG3
Ceara1
24.06.21SA
Ceara2
Atletico-MG1
22.11.20SA
Ceara2
Atletico-MG2
16.08.20SA
Atletico-MG2
Ceara0
29.09.19SA
Atletico-MG2
Ceara1
05.05.19SA
Ceara1
Atletico-MG2
Recent Form
Atletico MG
19.04.26SA
Coritiba2
Atletico-MG0
L
16.04.26COP
Atletico-MG2
Juventud1
W
12.04.26SA
Santos1
Atletico-MG0
L
09.04.26COP
Puerto Cabello2
Atletico-MG1
L
05.04.26SA
Atletico-MG2
Athletico-PR1
W
02.04.26SA
Chapecoense-SC0
Atletico-MG4
W
21.03.26SA
Fluminense1
Atletico-MG0
L
19.03.26SA
Atletico-MG1
Sao Paulo0
W
14.03.26SA
Vitoria2
Atletico-MG0
L
11.03.26SA
Atletico-MG1
Internacional0
W
Ceara
19.04.26SB
Londrina0
Ceara0
D
15.04.26COP
Ceara4
Jacuipense1
W
12.04.26SB
Ceara1
Nautico0
W
09.04.26COP
Ceara2
Fortaleza0
W
04.04.26SB
Cuiaba0
Ceara2
W
02.04.26SB
Ponte Preta1
Ceara1
D
28.03.26COP
Retro3
Ceara1
L
25.03.26COP
Ceara1
ABC1
D
21.03.26SB
Ceara1
Sao Bernardo1
D
17.03.26COP
Sao Bernardo0
Ceara (2 - 3 Pens)0
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Beating the oddsmakers requires a careful, steady approach, and this upcoming Copa Do Brasil fixture is a textbook case for why data analysis works. The key is to take the emotion out of the game and focus on the hard numbers that actually move the market. Let’s look at the hosts first.

Their general form establishes their market expectation. Yet, seasoned bettors know to look a lot closer. A deep dive into their recent performances uncovers the clear reality of their current attacking rhythm and their defensive discipline.

The traveling team possesses a unique profile that we need to unpack. Comparing their long-term form with the immediate spark shown in their latest games is essential to finding out if they hold hidden betting value today. History cannot be swept under the rug, either.

Evaluating the head-to-head data frequently highlights recurring dominance or tactical setups that regularly cause problems for one side. Mixing these past encounters with the latest form metrics yields a strong pick for the clash. With all variables considered, the optimal path is obvious.

Our highlighted choice is 1X, which is where the sharp money is heading, boosted by the current @1.13 odds available. Once the whistle blows, the talking is over. It will all come down to the final score to validate our statistical blueprint.

Make sure to review our other daily predictions.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Atletico MG vs Ceara?
Our selection is 1X — Atletico MG to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.13. Tip confidence rating: 90%.
What is Atletico MG's current form?
Atletico MG have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Ceara been performing recently?
Ceara have recorded 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Atletico MG lead with 6 wins versus Ceara's 1, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
⚠️
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