LOST Tip LOST Shimal 1-0 Baku Sporting
S

Shimal

Home
L L L D L
2W 1D 7L ▼ Declining
VS
1-0
B
Baku Sporting
Away
D W L D W
2W 4D 4L → Steady
24predictiontoday Selection · Thursday, 23rd April 2026
2
Backing Baku Sporting to win
Shimal 30%
Draw 20%
Baku Sporting 50%
H Fair Odds 3.33
D Fair Odds 5
A Fair Odds 2
Implied Prob 77.5% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -28.5% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
0
Shimal
0
Draws
2
Baku Sporting
2
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Baku Sporting won 2 of 2 meetings.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Shimal
Metric
Baku Sporting
0.8
Goals For / Game
0.8
2.2
Goals Against / Game
1.1
10%
Clean Sheets
20%
2-1-7
W — D — L
2-4-4
Win Rate
20%
20%
2.5
Avg Goals
65%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
B0
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
S0
0-0 8.6%
0-1 12.9%
0-2 9.7%
0-3 4.9%
0-4 1.8%
0-5 0.6%
S1
1-0 8.2%
1-1 12.3%
1-2 9.2%
1-3 4.6%
1-4 1.7%
1-5 0.5%
S2
2-0 3.9%
2-1 5.8%
2-2 4.4%
2-3 2.2%
2-4 0.8%
2-5 0.3%
S3
3-0 1.2%
3-1 1.9%
3-2 1.4%
3-3 0.7%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
S4
4-0 0.3%
4-1 0.4%
4-2 0.3%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
S5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 0-1(12.9%) 0-2(9.7%) 1-2(9.2%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip S=Home goals ↓   B=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Shimal Win
30%
3.33
Draw
20%
5
Baku Sporting Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Shimal
Overall
2.3
Scoring
2.7
Defence
2.7
Baku Sporting
Overall
3.2
Scoring
2.7
Defence
6.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 12%
Home Win & BTTS No 19%
Draw & BTTS Yes 15%
Draw & BTTS No 23%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 12%
Away Win & BTTS No 19%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 14%
Home Win & Under 2.5 17%
Draw & Over 2.5 17%
Draw & Under 2.5 21%
Away Win & Over 2.5 14%
Away Win & Under 2.5 17%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
17.12.251L
Shimal0
Baku Sporting1
25.09.251L
Baku Sporting4
Shimal1
Recent Form
Shimal
16.04.261L
Sabail4
Shimal0
L
09.04.261L
Shimal0
Mingachevir3
L
03.04.261L
Sahdag Qusar1
Shimal0
L
19.03.261L
Shimal0
Zaqatala0
D
11.03.261L
Shimal0
Safa Baku2
L
05.03.261L
Zaqatala3
Shimal4
W
24.02.261L
Shimal3
Cebrayil2
W
19.02.261L
Shimal0
Sahdag Qusar1
L
13.02.261L
Difai Agsu3
Shimal1
L
07.02.261L
Shimal0
Mingachevir3
L
Baku Sporting
16.04.261L
Baku Sporting0
Safa Baku0
D
08.04.261L
Baku Sporting3
MOIK Baku1
W
02.04.261L
Sabail1
Baku Sporting0
L
18.03.261L
Baku Sporting1
Mingachevir1
D
12.03.261L
Difai Agsu1
Baku Sporting3
W
05.03.261L
Baku Sporting0
Mingachevir1
L
24.02.261L
Sabail0
Baku Sporting0
D
18.02.261L
Cebrayil1
Baku Sporting2
W
12.02.261L
Baku Sporting2
MOIK Baku0
W
05.02.261L
Safa Baku1
Baku Sporting1
D
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Beating the oddsmakers requires a careful, steady approach, and this upcoming Azerbaijan 1 Liqa fixture is a textbook case for why data analysis works. The key is to take the emotion out of the game and focus on the hard numbers that actually move the market. Let’s look at the hosts first.

Their general form establishes their market expectation. Yet, seasoned bettors know to look a lot closer. A deep dive into their recent performances uncovers the clear reality of their current attacking rhythm and their defensive discipline.

The traveling team possesses a unique profile that we need to unpack. Comparing their long-term form with the immediate spark shown in their latest games is essential to finding out if they hold hidden betting value today. History cannot be swept under the rug, either.

Evaluating the head-to-head data frequently highlights recurring dominance or tactical setups that regularly cause problems for one side. Mixing these past encounters with the latest form metrics yields a strong pick for the clash. With all variables considered, the optimal path is obvious.

Our highlighted choice is 2, which is where the sharp money is heading, boosted by the current @1.29 odds available. Once the whistle blows, the talking is over. It will all come down to the final score to validate our statistical blueprint.

Make sure to review our other daily predictions.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Shimal vs Baku Sporting?
Our selection is 2 — Baku Sporting to win, priced at approximately 1.29. Tip confidence rating: 49%.
What is Shimal's current form?
Shimal have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches.
How has Baku Sporting been performing recently?
Baku Sporting have recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Shimal lead with 0 wins versus Baku Sporting's 2, with 0 draws across 2 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
⚠️
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